Last week I made predictions on who would win Maine’s gubernatorial race. I am sorry to say I screwed-up! Specifically, Maine does NOT use Rank Choice Voting to elect its Governor. The ballots will be counted the old fashion way: whoever gets the most votes wins! Why the courts decided RVC was okay sometimes but not other times is nonsensical. But I digress.

So, here is the real deal: In November, we will have a three-way race for governor between Hannah Pingree (D), Bobby Charles (R) and Rick Bennett (I). When I looked at the race in terms of RCV, I saw a pathway for Rick Bennett to win. With no RCV shenanigans, I don’t see how either Bennett or Charles beats Pingree. And, I don’t think it will be close. Because Pingree is a D, and in Maine Ds are the majority party, she will get at least 40% of the vote, maybe more. And, not only is Pingree a D, she is smart, attractive, and experienced. That is a hard hand to beat in Maine. Even if Pingree takes only 40%, that leaves Bennett and Charles splitting 60%. Most Rs will vote for Charles so give him 32%. That leaves Bennett third with 28%. The only way this race gets close is if Bennett or Charles drops out. And I don’t see that happening.

With a legit independent candidate in the race, the size of the Democratic base is a big problem for Republicans: If only all Ds vote for Pingree, and I think they will, she gets 37% – that alone might be enough. Plus, her environmental policies will attract Greenies (~4% of Maine voters are registered Green Party). Of course, there could be a big surprise. But I’m not seeing a picture of Pingree sporting an offensive tattoo showing up on the Maine Wire!

The Ds really lucked out when Pingree beat Dr. COVID in round four of RCV. I think Charles would have beaten Shah. I know my updated prediction will be upsetting to readers. But remember, it is only my prediction…and, I have already been wrong once! And you never know: maybe Pingree does have a game changing tattoo!