Well, it took eleven days but we FINALLY know the candidates for governor: Hannah Pingree (D), Bobby Charles (R) and Rick Bennett (I). I hope you love Rank Choice Voting because there is more to come in November! Why? Because it is pretty much a done deal that none of the three gubernatorial candidates will get over 50% of the votes in round one of the counting: I predict that Pingree will get the most votes, ~45% and Charles and Bennett will pretty evenly split the remaining 55%. So, the question is: Who finishes third. Remember, in round two of RCV the candidate that finished last in the first round (in this case third) is eliminated. Then the people who voted for the eliminated candidate, AND selected a different candidate as their second choice, have their second-choice votes distributed among the remaining candidates.

The most likely scenario is Bennett is eliminated and its Pingree vs Charles in round two. I believe the majority of Bennet votes will list Pingree as their second choice. So, in this scenario, Hannah Pingree is Maine’s next governor.

But, if Bennett finishes second and Charles is eliminated, then it’s Pingree vs Bennett in round two. I believe the majority of the Charles voters will list Bennett as their second choice. The question will be is that majority be enough to overtake Pingree? I think that is probable. But we shall see.

Last year, when Hannah Pingree decided to run for Governor, I predicted she would win. I still think that will be the outcome in November. But the presence of a legit independent candidate (Bennett) and RCV will make things interesting.

One thing for sure: Bobby Charles is not going to be our next Governor. Write it down. Charles will get support from 99% of Rs, but Maine’s unenrolled will gravitate toward Bennett and Pingree.

In other races, the Oysterman has no chance. Susan Collins will be reelected and that will be a good thing for Maine and Our Country.

In CD2: He’s Back! Paul LePage will beat Matt Dunlap by 10 points. Dunlap is a good guy, but CD2 is MAGA country. And this time around there will be no RCV shenanigans!