A veteran University of Virginia political analyst who looks for excuses to favor the Democrats isn’t buying what Graham Platner is selling.

Despite Polymarket calling Platner a 32-point odds-on favorite to beat GOP U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, Larry Sabato is calling the race a toss-up.

The longtime Virginia political analyst shows Maine as key to whether Democrats can flip the Senate to their majority.

Sabato just moved three Senate races to “lean Democrat,” which, if holds, would require them one more seat – i.e., Maine’s – to control the upper chamber.

While Platner is ahead of Collins in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate by 7.4 points, she has a history of massively overperforming polls.

Graham Pollard, The Maine Wire’s digital media editor, recently pointed out that the betting markets are a much more accurate and up-to-date daily barometer of political fortunes than polls, which are old news by the time they are published.

Going into the weekend, Polymarket showed the Democrat advantage in Maine at 32 points.

The market was giving 67 points to Platner and just 35 to the five-term Collins.

Polymarket sells “yes” and “no” shares based on a buyer’s election prediction.

Platner’s winning shares were selling at 67 cents each compared to 35 cents for each of Collins’.

Kalshi, meanwhile, is giving Platner an 20-point advantage, 60-40. It’s predicting a 4.9-point Platner win over Collins.