The management of America’s electrical grid is the responsibility of a dozen or so regional system operators. Maine relies on ISO New England to ensure that, when you flip the switch, there is enough electricity being generated to power your lights. To do this, ISO NE estimates how much electricity all the customers in New England combined will use during a given day (the demand) and awards contracts to sufficient suppliers to meet that demand. Who gets the contracts is based on a complicated bidding process with the highest accepted bid setting the price that ALL suppliers are paid. So long as supply and demand are in balance, the lights come on when you flip the switch. ISO NE is less concerned about price. That is not their job.

ISO NE does keep track of what fuel or “resources” the suppliers use to generate the electricity they are supplying. On a typical day in New England, about half of the electricity we need comes from suppliers who generate electricity by burning natural gas. The second biggest suppliers are the nuclear plants at Seabrook and Millstone in Connecticut. These nukes provide about 25% of our electricity 24/7/365. The remaining 25% or so of the demand is met by a combination of hydro, trash/wood waste, wind and solar. You can view the resources being used to generate the electricity on the New England grid, and the wholesale price, in real time on the ISO NE website. Here is the resource list for a “typical” day:

Natural Gas 45%

Nuke 25%

Hydro 10%

Wind 5%

Trash/Wood 5%

Solar 2%

Oil 0%

Imports 8% (mostly from Canada)

A couple things should stand out: 1) Wind and solar are minor resources and 2) New England’s demand for electricity is satisfied in part by importing electricity. ISO NE makes the decision to import based on price. TYPICALLY, it is cheaper to import power than fire up New England’s oil and coal plants. But that is changing.

What’s happening this weekend is NOT a surprise and signals big trouble ahead. Here is the situation: It is cold in New England which means the demand for natural gas to heat homes and generate electricity exceeds the capacity of New England’s gas pipelines. Heating homes is the priority, so homes get gas. The leftover gas goes to the gas power plants but the amount of electricity they generate is greatly reduced. And, at the same time, the demand for electricity increases due to cold. Remember: all the new heat pumps Mainers installed need electricity! On Saturday January 24th, to balance supply and demand, ISO NE had no choice but to award expensive contracts to oil fired plants and do so in a big way. Here is the resource mix at 2 PM on Saturday:

Natural Gas 21%

Nuke 22%

Hydro 4%

Wind 6%

Trash/Wood 4%

Solar 4%

Oil 30% (yes, thirty percent!)

Imports 9%

As bad as this resource mix looked at 2 PM, it actually got worse. By 5 o’clock, solar was zero and oil was up to 37%. And, the wholesale price of electricity was over 50 cents a kilowatt, about 10 times the typical price.

As I said, this situation is not a surprise: it is the culmination of policies and politics that favor fantasy over reality. It all started back in 2016 when Gov. Cuomo (D-NY) rejected the permits for two new gas pipelines and pledged to make new buildings “all electric”. Then his successor, Gov. Hochul (D-NY), blocked the permits to modernize two gas power plants. Hochul said offshore wind is the answer. In Massachusetts, Gov. Healey (D-MA) bragged about stopping two new gas pipelines. At the same time, Gov. Mills (D-ME) pushed replacing oil heating with electric heat pumps to stop climate change. Dams were removed to save the salmon. Coal fired plants were shut down to save the environment. Not to worry: a new floating wind farm in the Gulf of Maine would provide clean, cheap electricity. And that may have been the biggest Fantasy of all!

PS: On Sunday at 2 PM oil fired boilers are generating 38% of the electricity on the New England grid. Solar is almost zero and wind about 1%. That is the Cold Reality.