Demographic characteristics such as gender, age, and educational attainment appear to be strong predictors of how Mainers will vote this November, with older, more highly-educated women leaning Democratic and younger, less highly-educated men leaning Republican.

District 1 voters in southern Maine also appear to be more likely to vote for Democratic candidates than their counterparts in the more northern District 2.

The Voice of Maine: Critical Insights on Maine Fall 2024 report, conducted by Digital Research, asked Mainers how they plan to vote in the upcoming election for a number of key offices, including the House, Senate, and presidency.

While Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is shown to be leading in the state overall — with 48 percent of the vote — former President Donald Trump holds a nearly ten-point lead in the Second District, coming in at 49 percent.

Given the way that Maine divides its electoral votes, former President Trump has the ability to earn the Second District’s electoral vote regardless of whether or not he carries the state as a whole.

Vice President Harris is shown to have a substantial lead in the First Congressional District, with 56 percent support compared to 33 percent for Trump.

Several key demographic characteristics appear to be strong indicators of how Mainers will likely vote in the upcoming presidential race.

For example, Harris holds a 15 point lead among women, while Trump has a 9 point lead among men.

Similarly, those over the age of 55 appear far more likely to vote for Harris, while those between the ages of 35 and 44 are the most likely to cast their ballots for Trump.

Education appears to be the strongest predictor of Mainers’ vote for president, with Harris holding a 27 point lead among college graduates and Trump carrying a 29 point lead among those who have a high school education or less.

In the First Congressional District, Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) is up for re-election this year and appears to hold a massive lead over her opponents at 56 percent, with Republican Ronald C. Russell carrying 16 percent and Independent Ethan Alcorn at 4 percent.

Rep. Pingree’s are comprised by 59 percent Democrats, 33 percent unenrolled voters, and 6 percent Republicans.

Russell’s support, meanwhile, 84 percent from Republicans, 8 percent Democrats, and 4 percent unenrolled voters.

Alcorn’s support is more evenly divided, coming from 23 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 39 percent from voters enrolled in other recognized political parties.

Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) and State Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) are tied at 38 percent a piece for the Second Congressional District’s seat in the United States House of Representatives.

21 percent of voters in the district have yet to make up their mind, largely representing younger, unenrolled voters.

While both Rep. Golden’s and Rep. Theriault’s support is comprised 64 percent by those in their political party, Golden sees 14 percent of his support coming from Republicans compared to just 6 percent of Theriault’s support coming from Democrats.

That said, Theriault’s support is comprised more heavily of unenrolled voters at 28 percent, whereas Golden’s share of unenrolled voters comes in more than ten points lower at 16 percent.

Similar to the demographic breakdown for the presidency, Golden enjoys more support from women while Theriault is more popular among Maine men.

Also mirroring the race for the presidency, older and more highly-educated voters are more likely to support Golden while younger and less highly-educated voters are more likely to swing toward Theriault.

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More from the Maine Wire on the results of this poll is available here: Mainers Concerned About Economy, Frequently Split Along Partisan Lines — Digital Research Report

In addition to voting for these major federal offices, Mainers will also be weighing in on five statewide ballot questions and state-level offices, as well as local positions and municipal referendums.

A detailed overview of the five statewide questions by the Maine Wire is available here: These Five Questions Will Be On the Ballot in Maine This November.

Additional information from the Maine Wire about what to expect on this year’s ballot is available here: Everything You Need to Know About Casting Your Ballot in the Upcoming Election.