Former President Donald Trump has a nearly 11-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to an eye-popping new analysis from the British outlet The Daily Mail.
“State-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House,” said the Daily Mail.
The analysis gives President Trump a 55.2 percent chance of victory and Vice President Harris a 44.6 percent chance of claiming the White House as of Monday.
The Daily Mail considers historical election data, current factors including which party is currently in power, the economy, and approval ratings, and combines that information with an analysis of national and state polls.
In their model, Harris saw a boost in her electoral chances after her debate with Trump on ABC, which had biased moderators.
That lead has since evaporated, and Trump pulled ahead over the weekend with his numbers trending upward.
Currently, the Daily Mail estimates that Trump will earn 287 electoral votes and Harris will take 251, but nevertheless considers the race a toss-up.
Harris is nevertheless favored to win the popular vote by a small margin, with an estimated 50.8 percent support.
The data shows a rapidly shifting race where small factors can decide which candidate takes the lead in a matter of days.
Though Trump is currently on top, the race is far from settled, and any number of factors could turn the tables and place Harris on top, or skyrocket Trump to a second White House term.
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