A new poll by Pan Atlantic Research shows the race for Maine’s Second Congressional District is leaning in favor of the Republican challenger.
Republican State Rep. Austin Theriault, of Fort Kent, leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden 47-44 percent with a slight edge among registered votes. (See full poll below)
The survey, conducted from September 5th to 15th, carries a margin of error of 3.5 percent, indicating that the race is very tight. Pan Atlantic Research found just nine percent of likely voters remained undecided in the race.
Although Theriault’s lead falls within the margin of error for the poll, that he’s leading at all is an ill omen for the incumbent Democrat.
In addition to underperforming his polling at similar points in his re-election races, Golden and his allies have also vastly outspent Theriault on television advertising.
According to FCC public file records of political spending, Golden began buying up TV time in July and August.
Theriault and his Republican allies, however, only started buying TV advertising in recent weeks, according to FCC reports for Maine’s broadcast TV stations.
A source close to the Theriault campaign told the Maine Wire that Golden has spent or reserved nearly a million dollars in TV ads, though the Golden campaign declined to comment on the volume of their ad spend.
Golden continues to have a campaign cash advantage over Theriault.
But burning seven-figures on television advertising only to trail Theriault, a relatively low-profile state lawmaker prior to winning the GOP nomination, by mid-September is hardly the bang a campaign expects for its buck.
The outcome of this election could depend on broader national politics, such as the presidential race between former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. However, the outcome of the race could also influence national politics, with both parties looking to secure control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
The Pan Atlantic Research poll, which was first reported on by the Bangor Daily News, appears below in its entirety.
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