The Maine Department of Labor (MDOL) released the state’s June employment numbers Friday, revealing that while Maine’s unemployment rate is low, a significant share of working-age residents remain out of the workforce.
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment for June was preliminarily calculated at 2.8 percent while the labor force participation rate came in at 59.6 percent.
Compared to May, both of these statistics are nearly identical, having previously come in at 3 percent and 59.5 percent respectively.
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that is regularly employed to remove the influences of “predictable seasonal patterns” in order to reveal a more accurate measure of how the employment situation has evolved over time.
The state’s unemployment rate is nearly identical to that of June 2023, at which time it was found to be 2.5 percent.
During this same time period, the national unemployment rate has risen from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent.
When broken down by county, unemployment has risen most significantly over the past year in Washington and Oxford counties, where it increased by .3 percent. Somerset County has fared the best during this period, seeing an unemployment decrease of .4 percent.
According to the MDOL, unemployment has been below 4 percent for 31 months and below the national average for all but two months out of the past 16 years.
Maine’s labor force participation rate is slightly higher than it was a year ago, at which time it came in at 59.2 percent.
Workforce participation rates are representative of the proportion of working-age individuals who are either employed or actively searching for work.
According to historical labor force participation data tracked by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, the proportion of working-age Mainers actually working was last below 60 percent in March 1978.
Although there are a number of different ways to calculate the labor force participation rate, the MDOL arrives at its statistics by considering all individuals over the age of 16. Consequently, retirees and other elderly individuals are included in these numbers.
As a result of this, it can be more complicated to parse these statistics, particularly given Maine’s aging population.
Looking at states with a similar average age, however, reveals that there is likely more to the story in Maine than simply an older-than-average population.
While Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont all have a similar median age, New Hampshire and Vermont have significantly higher rates of labor force participation this month – at 65.9 percent and 66.3 percent respectively.
The MDOL cautions in their press release that their figures are “preliminary” and therefore “should be considered in the context of whether they are below, near, or above historical or U.S. averages, rather than if they are up or down a few tenths of a point from some other month.”
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